Lead Economics

Why Aged Solar Leads Flooded the Market in 2026

Quick answer

A large batch of solar leads generated during the late-2025 rush to beat the January 1 tax-credit deadline never closed before the cliff hit, and that leftover inventory is a major reason aged-lead supply and price tiers widened in 2026. Aged lead pricing runs from roughly $1.20 to $1.50 for 30 to 85 days old down to $0.17 to $0.20 for leads over a year old, a steep discount curve that reflects how fast a solar lead loses value once the moment it was captured for has passed.

By VA Horizon Team · July 20, 2026 · 7 min read

The 2025 Rush That Created the Surplus

Q1 2026 residential solar installations came in at 1,179 MWdc, up 6% year over year but down 15% from Q4 2025. SEIA describes that drop as a 2025 year-end pull-forward effect: homeowners raced to get systems installed before the Section 25D credit disappeared on January 1, 2026, which pulled a wave of demand into late 2025 that would otherwise have spread across a longer stretch of time.

A rush like that does not just accelerate closings. It accelerates lead generation and first contact, too, and not every homeowner who requested a quote or took a call in that window signed before the deadline hit. Those contacted-but-unclosed prospects are exactly the kind of inventory that ends up resold into the aged-lead market once the moment that made them urgent has passed.

What "Aged" Actually Costs

Aged Lead Store publishes tiered pricing that shows the discount curve directly: leads 30 to 85 days old run $1.20 to $1.50, leads 86 to 365 days old run $0.35 to $0.40, and leads 366 to 2,000 days old run $0.17 to $0.20. Invention Solar runs a similar tiered model on the fresher end: $3.00 per lead at 0 to 7 days old, sliding down to $0.50 at 91-plus days.

The pattern in both pricing tables is the same. A lead's value drops fastest in the first few months, because the homeowner's circumstances, interest, and financing eligibility have all had time to change since they first raised a hand.

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Why 2026 Has More Aged Supply Than Usual

Two forces are compounding here. First, the pull-forward effect left an unusually large batch of unclosed late-2025 contacts entering the resale pipeline at once. Second, the market contracted 18% to 21% for 2026 overall, while customer acquisition cost is projected to spike 40% to $0.84 per watt. When it costs more to chase every lead and fewer of them are converting, sellers have more incentive to cut losses on stale inventory and move it into the aged tier rather than keep paying to re-contact it.

The Real Risk of Buying Aged

Aged leads are a volume play at a low per-unit price, but the buyer inherits all the re-qualification work: confirming the homeowner is still interested, still eligible, and still reachable under current consent rules. A 2024 FCC rule lets consumers revoke calling or texting consent using any reasonable method, which means a homeowner who once opted in a year ago may have already opted back out somewhere along the way, and the burden of knowing that falls on whoever is dialing the aged list now.

The Alternative: Fewer, Fresher, Confirmed

An exclusive, double-confirmed appointment is the opposite bet from an aged lead. Instead of buying a stale contact at a steep discount and absorbing the re-qualification and compliance risk yourself, you are buying an appointment that has already been reconfirmed with a homeowner who currently meets your criteria. It costs more per unit than a $0.17 aged lead, but it is not competing on the same basis: one is raw, discounted inventory, the other is a delivered, checked appointment.

Sources

The external data in this article draws on the sources below. Figures described in the text as estimates or industry triangulations are directional and are not attributed to a single dataset.

FAQ

What are aged solar leads?

Solar leads that were captured weeks, months, or years ago and are resold at a steep discount because the homeowner's interest, eligibility, or reachability may have changed since first contact. Pricing typically ranges from around $1.20 to $1.50 for leads 30 to 85 days old down to $0.17 to $0.20 for leads over a year old.

Why is there so much aged solar lead supply in 2026?

A wave of leads generated during the late-2025 rush to beat the January 1 tax-credit deadline did not all close before the cliff hit, adding a large batch of unclosed, contacted prospects into resale inventory. Rising 2026 acquisition costs are also pushing sellers to move stale leads into the aged tier rather than keep paying to re-contact them.

Are aged solar leads worth buying?

It depends on your tolerance for re-qualification and compliance work. The price is low, but the buyer has to re-confirm the homeowner is still interested, still eligible, and still consented to be contacted, especially given the 2024 FCC rule letting consumers revoke consent at any point through any reasonable method.

How much cheaper are aged solar leads than fresh ones?

Steeply cheaper. Invention Solar's tiered pricing runs from $3.00 for a lead 0 to 7 days old down to $0.50 at 91-plus days, and Aged Lead Store's oldest tier, 366 to 2,000 days, runs $0.17 to $0.20, a small fraction of what a fresh, exclusive lead costs.

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